The Sunday Express (UK) reported this weekend that Osama was surrounded by US forces and it's only a matter of time until he's captured.

Without comment on how likely this actually is, I refer you to Ezra at Pandagon speculating on the impact of Osama's capture on AWOL's re-lection:

As the conventional wisdom goes, capturing Osama would make Bush a lock for reelection. I'm going to make the counter-argument and say that Osama's capture would be terrible for Bush's reelection. In fact, it would be one of the worst things that could happen to him.

Read it.