The new Time poll has Bush and Kerry tied 45-45. Matt Y. had this to say:

A relatively low-scoring tie like this one is much more favorable to the challenger than is something like a 49-49 tie. The latter is a neck-in-neck race, likely to be determined by GOTV and electoral college quirks, whereas the former is a race where the incumbent desperately needs to change the dynamic in order to forestall an inevitable loss. But of course for all the same reasons that Kerry was not, in fact, doomed before the first debate Bush is not, in fact, currently doomed. There will be more debates, and in today's climate there's still about 1 million news cycles to go before the voting is done.

Will that stubborn ten percent break to Bush? Not bloody likely.