The bird flu thing scares the shit out of me and it has for quite a while. It doesn't help that the West Coast of the United States, where I live, is by far the most geographically proximate area of the States to current bird flu hotspots. When you factor in the movement of people between East Asia and the West Coast, the conclusion that a pandemic would hit this part of the States first is hard to avoid.

The pandemic will happen, according to health experts. It is only a matter of time.

Health experts and officials shook up a breakfast meeting in Washington this morning with more alarm over what they see is an inevitable avian influenza pandemic and public-health emergency. Also today, World Health Organization officials confirmed the first case of avian flu in a farmworker in the island nation of Indonesia. Known as avian flu because it infects primarily chickens and waterfowl, the officials fear that the virus will mutate and become a human disease. Because this strain has never circulated through the human population, people would have no innate immunity if they were infected. Officials compare the virus to the 1918 pandemic that hit one third of the population and killed between 1 and 5 percent of those infected. This strain, known as H5N1, could be at least that deadly and perhaps more so, especially for young and healthy people who would very likely die from an immune system reaction to the disease, as happened in 1918. Today, if the pandemic hit, the number of dead could be as high as 360 million worldwide.

"You can get rid of the 'if' because it's going to occur," said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. It may not occur this year, or next, he said, "but [the threat] is not going to go away." The disease has currently crossed over to humans in Asia, but only among people who have very close contact with chickens or who take care of the sick. It has killed at least 54 people in Asia but is not now communicable in the way that the more common and less lethal human influenza viruses are.

The WHO has declared that we are in Phase 3 of the six-part influenza pandemic scale. This means:

Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Phase 4 is more widespread human-to-human transmission in localized areas. Phase 5 is expanded human-to-human transmission, and if we get to that point I'd assume that a lot of people are going to panic. Let's not talk about Phase 6.

The US and other countries are stocking up on Tamiflu and Relenza, virus inhibitors that could prevent you from contracting avian influenza or help get you through its effects. You apparently can get a prescription from your doctor. It sounds like a good investment to me. Hopefully you would never have to use it.

There some very sobering pandemic preparedness guides here, including planning how one should stockpile food, water, and medicines.

Thinking about this now can't hurt you. Be aware that something is coming.

Personally, I'll probably try not to worry about all of this until we hit Phase 4. At that point, immediate Tamiflu acquisition will be my priority, then it's probably escape from the West Coast to the Midwest and see what happens.

[inspired by Sullivan]

MORE: Eek. Maybe the plan is to get Tamiflu before we get to Phase 4.

The Edinburgh Evening News reports:

Panic-buying of flu drugs has broken out in New Zealand amid growing fears of a deadly global pandemic. Many pharmacies have waiting lists for anti-viral drug Tamiflu after bird flu hit parts of Asia.

This can only get worse.