Josh Trevino:

The probable opponent there is now Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton is not out yet, but barring a stunning turnaround in the March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio, she will continue to fade. Assuming this continues, it is worth comparing McCain and Obama as they performed in the handful of states they have both won so far. It is a short list of eight, and though we cannot assess the candidates in a direct contest — yet — we can compare the turnout for each. Suffice it to say that Barack Obama’s vote totals blow McCain’s out of the water. The states, and the percentage advantage for Obama, follow:

Connecticut: Obama had 226% of McCain’s total.

Delaware: Obama had 226% of McCain’s total.

Illinois: Obama had 307% of McCain’s total.

Maryland: Obama had 295% of McCain’s total.

Missouri: Obama had 208% of McCain’s total.

South Carolina: Obama had 200% of McCain’s total.

Washington: Obama had 623% of McCain’s total.

Virginia: Obama had 255% of McCain’s total.

This comparison is of limited utility, of course: the lopsided totals in places like Connecticut and Illinois may simply reflect the anemic Republican apparatus in each. But how to explain the comparative blowouts in Missouri, South Carolina, and Virginia? The Democrats aren’t just winning the turnout battle: they’re dominating it by orders of magnitude, even in Republican strongholds. Between the strange loss of the pro-war vote, and the massive Democratic turnout advantage to date, John McCain cannot afford to rest on his laurels, nor cruise to his inevitable nomination, if he wants to win in nine months.

Those numbers are very attractive.