salto mortale

Friday, August 15, 2008

Pessimism/Optimism

Swiftboater Jerome Corsi is back on the scene, but this time Obama's campaign is ready for him and fighting back. IOZ doesn't think this push back will be enough:
[Obama's] got surrogates out surrogatin' and a fancy new website called BarackObamaIsNotaSecretMuslimandWillNotStealYourWhiteWomen.com. They're gonna push back, hit hard, destroy, crush, defeat.

Actually, they're going to betray a stunning ignorance, in this advertising day and marketing age, of the nature of--shit, the existence of--cognitive bias. They really seem to believe that if you can show how 50% of Jerome Corsi's end notes are circular refernces to A. Jan Marcussen's shocking exposé of the Antichrist, National Sunday Law, that his attributions are questionable, his quotations selective, his historical and biographical assertions tendentious, his purpose specious, and his claims of scholarly objectivity impossible, then, by god, Grandma and Grandpa and the good people of the heartland will stop worrying that Barack Obama is a secret Muslim.

The reason that this isn't going to happen is that the American people, like most people, are morons. They are incapable of examining their biases and preconceptions. They are statistically innumerate; they can read but have no critical capacity; they are deeply susceptible to repetition. Arguing with an American about whether or not Barack Obama went to a terrorist day camp is like telling a bull not to gore you. He will not understand. "But the timeline . . ." you say. "But the documents . . ." He gives not two shits about the timeline, nor the documents, nor the footnotes, endnotes, introductions, prefaces, publisher, or political affiliations. When MediaMatters goes on Larry King to rebut Jerome Corsi, here is what the average Larry King audience member hears, assuming he remembered to turn on his aid: "Obama . . . Muslim . . . Madrassa . . . Muslim . . . Obama . . . Cocaine . . . Obama . . . Muslim . . . Drugs . . . Obama." That is the sum total of the information that he is able to absorb and sythesize out of the conversation that has just transpired in front of him. He might as well be listening to this dude.
Depressing. As a counterbalance, here is The Field to make you feel better:
In the context of what I've referred to as "the Mack the Knife technique" of politics - that in which you slip the dagger in quietly and cleanly so there's "not a trace of red" on your white gloves - NBC's First Read seems to have smelt the blood in the water:

Obama's stealth ad campaign: Over the past week, we've gotten our hands on a number of negative TV ads Obama's been running against McCain in key states like Ohio and Michigan. This is in addition to the tough spot, uncovered by Politico, that Obama's airing in Indiana. Clearly, the Obama campaign isn't interested in telling the media about every single McCain attack ad they're running. Perhaps this is because Obama's brand can't afford to be tarnished too much if he's seen as constantly running negative TV ads. So the campaign simply puts them on the air in key markets, doesn't tell the press about them, and layers those ads with positive ones being run nationally during the Olympics. Also, by not releasing to the media, it forces the McCain camp to wait a day or two before they see the ad. McCain's camp is much more comfortable unveiling their negative ads, perhaps because they want the free press that comes with them. But make no mistake, Obama's running plenty of negative TV ads, particularly in the industrial Midwestern states. In fact, one of Obama's biggest candidate strengths -- which doesn't get the attention it deserves -- is that he plays political hardball as well as his opponents; he just sometimes does it under the radar.

Here is one of the "stealth ads":




The Field goes on:

What's also going on is, I think, the use of specific ads and messages in specific states to then test - through polls and focus groups - whether and what kind of effect they have, for possible use in other states or nationwide.

We're seeing other national media begin to recognize, as Mark Halperin headlined an entry the other day: "This Man Won't Be Swift Boated."

There's a big difference (especially among Democrats) between putting out a press release that claims that you're playing tough, and actually being tough. That the Obama campaign doesn't see it necessary to call a press conference each time it smacks down its rival or airs a new comparative TV ad on the local, swing state, level is a sign of the kind of quiet confidence and execution of game plan that won it the nomination.

Just as the primary victory was the result of a plan laid out before a single state voted, the general election strategy seems - to this observer - to be the execution of a playbook that was drawn weeks or months ago and remains largely unchanged and immune to the armchair counsel and protestations out there.

The Field always makes me feel better, but I'm not sure if it is because of Al Giordano's quality analysis, or if it is just that his Kool Aid tastes really good.



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