I wrote here that Palin can't help McCain; she can only hurt him.

And it sounds like it's started:

McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin to be his vice-president is beginning to backfire. (Amidst all my errors, I’ll take credit for predicting this.) It seems to be a factor in the movement of women and college-educated voters--and of Democrats--back into the Obama column. Quinnipiac asked Colorado voters whom they would prefer as president, Palin or Democratic choice Joe Biden. Men chose Palin by 46 to 44 percent, while women chose Biden by 47 to 37 percent. Independents preferred Biden by 50 to 37 percent and Democrats--presumably including Hillary Clinton backers McCain wanted to attract--by 86 to 4 percent. 32 percent of Independents said the choice of Palin made them less likely to vote for McCain; only 13 percent said the choice of Biden made them less likely to vote for Obama.

The national polls have been swinging back and forth, but the state-level polls have been remarkably static.

More on polls -- and what to expect from the debates -- here.